SMITH'S RESEARCH & GRADINGS

What Comes Next?

November 12, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Summary: As the dust settles from the November 3rd 2026 mid-term elections, three factors are becoming more evident: the Trump administration is wounded, but not dead; Democratic leadership faces a major challenge in holding together a potentially fractious new Congressional body in January 2027; and the economy has yet to cool. Indeed, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now forecasting Q4 2026 real GDP growth at 3.5%; it was 3.4% in Q3 2026. The jobs report for October showed the US economy added 165,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate ticking down from 4.2% to 4.1%. The fast pace of growth has continued to put pressure on inflation, with October inflation coming in higher than expected. The post-November election landscape is defined by deep political uncertainty and polarization, fast economic growth, and ongoing inflationary pressures, to a backdrop of major questions over...

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The Demographic Reckoning: colleges and the future of America's economy

The Demographic Reckoning: Colleges and the Future of America’s Economy

October 16, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Demographics, Higher Education, and Future Economic Paths: It was H.G. Wells, author of The Time Machine and War of the Worlds, who stated, “History is a race between education and catastrophe.” In...

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Inflation, elections and geopolitics

Inflation, Elections, and Busy Geopolitics

October 16, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Summary: To put it mildly, times are challenging. Inflation is up, voter moods are ugly, and the geopolitical landscape is increasingly more daunting. Volatility for markets is coming from many directions –...

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Global economy and foreign direct investment

High Hopes on the Economy and FDI

October 13, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Summary: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (as of October 6th) puts 3rd quarter real GDP at a robust 3.7%. Although this is slower than earlier reads, the pace is still strong,...

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High-yield municipal bonds

The Daily Grind

No Calm Before the Storm If you blink, you will have missed something. The bull market continues to snort ahead. Bond markets are seeing considerable new issue, which is being gobbled up. The key narratives shaping markets are inflation (which...

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Municipal bond market commentary

Market Commentary

James Kellum, Jr., Executive Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “As summer continues to scorch much of the country, the municipal market is feeling the heat as well. Municipal supply remains ablaze, spreading across the calendar faster than a...

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