Outlook

The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.

Forecasting the U.S. economy has become much more challenge, increasingly akin to reading tea leaves than analying the results of finely tuned algorithmic models.

Smith's Research & Gradings believes the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 bps at its June meeting.

Smith's Newport Municipal Bond Conference featured a round table discussion with three of the nation's leading municipal strategists. The conversation was witty and crosstalk while somewhat sarcastic, was always respectful.

Smith's is issuing an Event Risk for Solar Flares (+1) The Solar Cycle 25 reached its lowest level in 2020 and it has started climbing higher in 2021. Forecasts predict the Solar 25 Cycle will peak in 2025.

We have reached the point where interest rates have become sufficiently low that the viability of issuing taxable municipal bonds to refund higher coupon tax-exempt bonds in an issuer’s capital structure has become an active strategy.

S&P Global Public Finance launched the 2021 Credit Calendar with its Outlook for State and Local Governments. From a credit standpoint, state and local governments have navigated and led through significant challenges over time, and S&P expects this to continue.

2020 was a year unlike any other due to the devastating impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, with no infrastructure asset being hit harder than demand-based transportation, according to Fitch on their 2021 US Transportation Outlook webinar.