SMITH'S RESEARCH & GRADINGS

War, Debt and the Fed

— Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D. Summary: In the week ahead the key narratives for investors and markets are understanding the Iran war’s economic impact; looking for the emergence of any new “cockroaches” in the private credit market; and discerning how the Fed reaches a decision at its FOMC meeting on March 17-18. Risks have increased for all debt markets, despite the new issue pipeline for corporates, sovereigns and municipal bonds is full. In the US, the impact of war is most evident at the gas pump and is creeping into airline tickets. Food and transport costs could follow. This feeds into negative sentiment in markets, increasing chances for a deeper selloff in equity and debt markets, especially for more high-risk assets.    Headlines – At home The Iran war and the states – pain at the pump.  The Iran war is having an impact on the US economy. Some states are...

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The Demographic Reckoning: Colleges and the Future of America’s Economy

October 16, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Demographics, Higher Education, and Future Economic Paths: It was H.G. Wells, author of The Time Machine and War of the Worlds, who stated, “History is a race between education and catastrophe.” In…...

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Inflation, elections and geopolitics

Inflation, Elections, and Busy Geopolitics

October 16, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Summary: To put it mildly, times are challenging. Inflation is up, voter moods are ugly, and the geopolitical landscape is increasingly more daunting. Volatility for markets is coming from many directions –…...

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Global economy and foreign direct investment

High Hopes on the Economy and FDI

October 13, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Summary: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (as of October 6th) puts 3rd quarter real GDP at a robust 3.7%. Although this is slower than earlier reads, the pace is still strong,…...

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High-yield municipal bonds

The Daily Grind

No Calm Before the Storm If you blink, you will have missed something. The bull market continues to snort ahead. Bond markets are seeing considerable new issue, which is being gobbled up. The key narratives shaping markets are inflation (which…...

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Municipal bond market commentary

Market Commentary

James Kellum, Jr., Executive Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “As summer continues to scorch much of the country, the municipal market is feeling the heat as well. Municipal supply remains ablaze, spreading across the calendar faster than a…...

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