SMITH'S RESEARCH & GRADINGS

U.S. Economy — The Great Uncertainty

Forecasting the U.S. economy has become much more challenging, increasingly akin to reading tea leaves than analyzing the results of finely tuned algorithmic models. Part of the problem is that the U.S. economy has drifted into the Great Uncertainty, which is being defined by a multitude of contradictory data signals, a greater emphasis on state-led industrial policy (with massive amounts of money being pumped into targeted sectors over a relatively short period of time), and the popping-up of unexpected geopolitical problems.

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Stay on top of the latest global news that can impact your investment strategy.

The Demographic Reckoning: Colleges and the Future of America’s Economy

October 16, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Demographics, Higher Education, and Future Economic Paths: It was H.G. Wells, author of The Time Machine and War of the Worlds, who stated, “History is a race between education and catastrophe.” In…...

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Inflation, elections and geopolitics

Inflation, Elections, and Busy Geopolitics

October 16, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Summary: To put it mildly, times are challenging. Inflation is up, voter moods are ugly, and the geopolitical landscape is increasingly more daunting. Volatility for markets is coming from many directions –…...

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Global economy and foreign direct investment

High Hopes on the Economy and FDI

October 13, 2026By Scott B. MacDonald, Ph.D.Chief Economist Summary: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (as of October 6th) puts 3rd quarter real GDP at a robust 3.7%. Although this is slower than earlier reads, the pace is still strong,…...

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High-yield municipal bonds

The Daily Grind

No Calm Before the Storm If you blink, you will have missed something. The bull market continues to snort ahead. Bond markets are seeing considerable new issue, which is being gobbled up. The key narratives shaping markets are inflation (which…...

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Municipal bond market commentary

Market Commentary

James Kellum, Jr., Executive Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “As summer continues to scorch much of the country, the municipal market is feeling the heat as well. Municipal supply remains ablaze, spreading across the calendar faster than a…...

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