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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its April 2024 Economic Outlook. According to the Washington-based multilateral agency, the U.S. is on track for 2.7% real GDP growth rate in 2024, driven by strong household spending and investment (with a fair amount coming from the federal government).
The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.
Jobs numbers come in hot!
The 2024 Smith's outlook for the U.S. economy calls for ongoing expansion, but at a slower pace and with considerable potential downside risk. Real GDP growth is expected at 1.8%, inflation at a little over 2.0%, and unemployment at around 4.0%. Barring any unexpected developments, the Fed should begin introducing interest rates cuts in June or July, with a year-end target of around 4.0%-4.25%. But the risks remain very present: intramural fighting over government spending, the Fed overshooting its inflation target, refinancing indigestion in the commercial property sector, and a plethora of external factors (which could be inflationary). The 2024 November elections are likely to be nasty, but not enough to derail the economy. All factors considered; our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic.
Forecasting the U.S. economy has become much more challenge, increasingly akin to reading tea leaves than analying the results of finely tuned algorithmic models.
Can Artificial intelligence deliver for municipal bond analysts? The answer is a resounding yes!
Kroll Bond Rating Agency's (KBRA)review of state revenue was lead by Paul Kwiatkoski, Managing Director. The State revenue losses show the results may be much less severe than originally estimated.
We have reached the point where interest rates have become sufficiently low that the viability of issuing taxable municipal bonds to refund higher coupon tax-exempt bonds in an issuer’s capital structure has become an active strategy.
S&P Global Public Finance launched the 2021 Credit Calendar with its Outlook for State and Local Governments. From a credit standpoint, state and local governments have navigated and led through significant challenges over time, and S&P expects this to continue.
2020 was a year unlike any other due to the devastating impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, with no infrastructure asset being hit harder than demand-based transportation, according to Fitch on their 2021 US Transportation Outlook webinar.
Congratulations to the analysts elected to receive the great and important honor of belonging to Smith's All-Star Analysts Team in 2020. Even if awards and accolades are presented by presidents and kings, none will be more important than the 2020 All-Star Municipal Analyst Award.
On Thursday, November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell indicating that he would be allowing most of the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending facilities to expire at year-end, and requesting that the Fed "return unused funds to the Treasury" in order for Congress to "re-appropriate $455 billion, consisting of $429 billion in excess Treasury funds for the Federal Reserve facilities and $26 billion in unused Treasury direct loan funds."
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
