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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its April 2024 Economic Outlook. According to the Washington-based multilateral agency, the U.S. is on track for 2.7% real GDP growth rate in 2024, driven by strong household spending and investment (with a fair amount coming from the federal government).
The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.
Jobs numbers come in hot!
The 2024 Smith's outlook for the U.S. economy calls for ongoing expansion, but at a slower pace and with considerable potential downside risk. Real GDP growth is expected at 1.8%, inflation at a little over 2.0%, and unemployment at around 4.0%. Barring any unexpected developments, the Fed should begin introducing interest rates cuts in June or July, with a year-end target of around 4.0%-4.25%. But the risks remain very present: intramural fighting over government spending, the Fed overshooting its inflation target, refinancing indigestion in the commercial property sector, and a plethora of external factors (which could be inflationary). The 2024 November elections are likely to be nasty, but not enough to derail the economy. All factors considered; our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic.
Forecasting the U.S. economy has become much more challenge, increasingly akin to reading tea leaves than analying the results of finely tuned algorithmic models.
Can Artificial intelligence deliver for municipal bond analysts? The answer is a resounding yes!
Despite positive polling, the Biden Administration's first major piece of legislation was successful because enough Democratic senators agreed to tow the party line. But the process did not occur as smoothly as some may have believed. We think that going forward, passing and implementing future major legislation will require a significant amount of political horse-trading. Even that will not assure victory, because each side will be seeking to satisfy their constituents, especially with the 2022 mid-terms looming in the background.
The National Emergency has been extended according to a letter from President Joe Biden to The Congress of the United States.
At press time, the US EPA issued two actions to protect public health from "Forever Chemicals" in the nation's drinking water. The topic is featured in the movie Dark Waters, a 2019 American legal thriller that dramatizes Robert Bilott's case against DuPont after they contaminated a town in West Virginia with unregulated chemicals (PFAS) in the production of Teflon. The EPA's announcement followed a timely MAGNY discussion on the roughly 50,000 U.S. public water systems and the challenges of funding and replacing the aging infrastructure.
Extreme winter weather hit 44 states and caused power outages for millions of Americans. Texas reported 10 deaths due to the cold temperatures. Smith's ESGradings has conducted decades of research on climate change. This year's events are due, in part, to La Nina.
American Dream bondholders went on real roller coaster ride that rivals the mall's Nickelodeon Universe Theme park.
The Executive Director of Hiawatha Academies in Minnesota submitted a proposal to consolidate the elementary program at the Northrop location and close Hiawatha Leadership Academies - Morris Park (HLA-Morris Park).
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
