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While Wall Street continues to hope for cuts in the near term, we are taking our cue from Chairman Powell’s May 14th comment that the U.S. central bank will have to be “patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”
ASCE released its economic report on “Bridging the Gap.” The report describes the impact that the federal investment has had on the US Infrastructure needs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its April 2024 Economic Outlook. According to the Washington-based multilateral agency, the U.S. is on track for 2.7% real GDP growth rate in 2024, driven by strong household spending and investment (with a fair amount coming from the federal government).
The state has a long history of closing budget gaps. This time should be no different. The reasons for the gaps vary over time. This time is different due to the delay in tax collections in the state to November of 2023 due to the climate change induced events that had taken place. What is the same factor this time is that capital gains declined appreciably in 2022 into 2023 due to the downturn in the markets. The turnaround for the markets did not take place until late 2023.
Jobs numbers come in hot!
The 2024 Smith's outlook for the U.S. economy calls for ongoing expansion, but at a slower pace and with considerable potential downside risk. Real GDP growth is expected at 1.8%, inflation at a little over 2.0%, and unemployment at around 4.0%. Barring any unexpected developments, the Fed should begin introducing interest rates cuts in June or July, with a year-end target of around 4.0%-4.25%. But the risks remain very present: intramural fighting over government spending, the Fed overshooting its inflation target, refinancing indigestion in the commercial property sector, and a plethora of external factors (which could be inflationary). The 2024 November elections are likely to be nasty, but not enough to derail the economy. All factors considered; our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic.
Over the past 50 years, male labor force participation in the United States has fallen over 10 percentage points, from 80 percent in January 1970 to 69 percent in January 2020.
While the federal government appears unlikely to lower the federal gas tax, many states have set about finding ways to provide relief at the pump.
Katya Moore helps us understand the situation in Ukraine from her unique position as Senior Fellow at the New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs. Ms. Moore's sources in Russia and Ukraine provide up-to-the-second reporting to SRG and our Wall Street and DC-area clientele.
Wow! The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs last month, keeping the unemployment rate in the 4.0% area. Also impressive is that there were large upward revisions from previous months. We say 'wow' because there was such negative sentiment prior to the release of the jobs number.
Ginny Housum, Senior Vice President, municipal bond workout specialist at UMB Bank in Minneapolis accepted Smith's High Yield Lifetime Achievement Award at Smith's High Yield Municipal Bond Conference.
Smith's hosted the High Yield Municipal Bond Conference on October 20-22 at the Greenwich Hyatt Regency Hotel. A Senior Living Panel on Thursday afternoon featured an All-Star Studded line-up, headlined by none other than First Team All-Star Mary Jane Minier, CPA, Senior Analyst, Head of Opportunistic Credit Strategy at Invesco Ltd.
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
