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Summary: Since the global outbreak of coronavirus in early 2020, there has been a move to stockpile food, increase prices, and in some cases, impose export restrictions. In the U.S., as the numbers of those infected and dying rises and unemployment rapidly rockets upwards, consumer behavior has turned more cautious and food distribution centers are swamped by hungry families. This situation is not helped by the closure of restaurants and concerns over distribution systems and the health of drivers who transport food and other household items. There are also increasing questions over food cultivation and the labor needed to bring crops to harvest. Although it is too early to be sounding the alarm regarding a food security crisis, which could lead to social turmoil, the seeds for such a development are possibly being planted. The risk is the creation of a food crisis when there really isn’t one – yet. This issue is likely to become more significant if the pandemic continues through the summer, dimming hopes of economic revival and raising the specter of food shortages.
Summary: Since the global outbreak of coronavirus in early 2020, there has been a move to stockpile food, increase prices, and in some cases, impose export restrictions. In the U.S., as the numbers of those infected and dying rises and unemployment rapidly rockets upwards, consumer behavior has turned more cautious and food distribution centers are swamped by hungry families. This situation is not helped by the closure of restaurants and concerns over distribution systems and the health of drivers who transport food and other household items. There are also increasing questions over food cultivation and the labor needed to bring crops to harvest. Although it is too early to be sounding the alarm regarding a food security crisis, the seeds for such a development are possibly being planted, which could lead to social turmoil. The risk is the creation of a food crisis when there really isn’t one – yet. This issue is likely to become more significant if the pandemic continues through the summer, dimming hopes of economic revival and raising the specter of food shortages.
Summary: It is difficult to escape coronavirus. Between the major cable networks running scoreboards numbering the infected and dead and the barrage of stories on social media, the virus dominates the news flow. The only other major story beyond coronavirus is the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which is causing a considerable amount of discomfort in the U.S. and Canadian oil patches. The virus and the oil price war are a one-two punch to the global economy and are reshaping the world. As 2020 plays out, our approach to cross-border economic relations, travel, urban planning, healthcare and the structure of daily life is changing. The bottom line is that coronavirus is the black swan that most of us failed to see.
David Hitchcock participated in S&P Global Ratings' Webinar on State Ratings and quietly retired at the end of the day. It was a silent send-off for a great analyst. Your correspondent checked in with him the very next day.
Congratulations to the analysts elected to receive the great and important honor of belonging to Smith's All-Star Analysts Team in 2020. Even if awards and accolades are presented by presidents and kings, none will be more important than the 2020 All-Star Municipal Analyst Award.
On Thursday, November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell indicating that he would be allowing most of the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending facilities to expire at year-end, and requesting that the Fed "return unused funds to the Treasury" in order for Congress to "re-appropriate $455 billion, consisting of $429 billion in excess Treasury funds for the Federal Reserve facilities and $26 billion in unused Treasury direct loan funds."
If you want to get a feel for municipal transportation credit, watch REM's video "Can't Get There From Here" which was filmed at a drive-in movie theater in Georgia in 2010. It's available on YouTube and the video is, well, "poor quality."
The rollercoaster ride that is the U.S. economy is likely to continue through into the first half of 2021.
Targeted Infrastructure programs will be one of the featured revitalization tools used for stimulating growth in the US economy post the COVID-19 pandemic. Many observers have anticipated massive large-scale infrastructure programs, but that may not be viable at this time, given the financial capabilities of many state and local governments.
Economic development related to transportation in and around Washington, D.C. underscores the tremendous limitations and challenges facing the area.
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Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
