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In a survey of readers, Smith's Research & Gradings asked about people who have done a great job during this Coronavirus crisis. Robin Prunty, Managing Director, Head of Analytics and Research at S&P Global Ratings came up a number of times, prompting our conversation with her.
One of the great lessons from the Puerto Rico bankruptcy was never to draw to an inside straight — in other words, state and local government politicians need to play the hand that is dealt.
In truth, high-tax blue states are net "receivers" of federal funds, New York foremost among them, according to Matthew Schoenfeld, a Chicago-based municipal bond portfolio manager. He gored one of the sacred cows of New Yorkers (and many municipal analysts). What's more, Mr. Schoenfeld did it publicly — in the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Page on July 22, 2020. Governor Andrew Cuomo, (D.NY) has repeatedly flouted a list of "donor states" topped by New York, which "gives" $29 bln. a year more than it "got" from 2015 through 2018. The source of the Governor's claim is the Rockefeller Institute's "Giving or Getting" which was published in 2017.
A COVID-19 pandemic, rising business bankruptcies, pressure on government finances, a global economic meltdown and an increasingly tenser relationship with China – what else could go wrong for Japan? Apparently, there is one more thing: Fitch has changed its outlook for Japan’s “A” sovereign rating from stable to negative. Moody’s rates Japan “A1” (stable) and S&P gives Japan a sovereign rating at “A+” (stable). We think it is possible to see Moody’s and S&P follow with negative outlooks later in the year. Smith’s shares many of the same concerns with Fitch about Japan’s credit picture and has a negative outlook. Moreover, Japan’s deteriorating creditworthiness is significant in that the Asia-Pacific country is the world’s third largest economy, a leading exporter and staunch U.S. ally. The deeper Japan sinks, the messier Asia’s geopolitical landscape becomes.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which began construction in 2011, is nearing completion, including the filling of a reservoir necessary to provide water flow for an electric power project. This development provides Ethiopia major leverage over the countries downriver and could boost Addis Ababa’s power throughout Africa. The GERD also raises the delicate long-term issue of food security for Egypt and Sudan, two countries with large and growing populations which have long histories of drought, famine and flooding.
Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and Tesla founder Elon Musk both agree when it comes to California's $77 billion high-speed rail project—the project is going to jump the tracks.
Congratulations to the analysts elected to receive the great and important honor of belonging to Smith's All-Star Analysts Team in 2020. Even if awards and accolades are presented by presidents and kings, none will be more important than the 2020 All-Star Municipal Analyst Award.
On Thursday, November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell indicating that he would be allowing most of the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending facilities to expire at year-end, and requesting that the Fed "return unused funds to the Treasury" in order for Congress to "re-appropriate $455 billion, consisting of $429 billion in excess Treasury funds for the Federal Reserve facilities and $26 billion in unused Treasury direct loan funds."
If you want to get a feel for municipal transportation credit, watch REM's video "Can't Get There From Here" which was filmed at a drive-in movie theater in Georgia in 2010. It's available on YouTube and the video is, well, "poor quality."
The rollercoaster ride that is the U.S. economy is likely to continue through into the first half of 2021.
Targeted Infrastructure programs will be one of the featured revitalization tools used for stimulating growth in the US economy post the COVID-19 pandemic. Many observers have anticipated massive large-scale infrastructure programs, but that may not be viable at this time, given the financial capabilities of many state and local governments.
Economic development related to transportation in and around Washington, D.C. underscores the tremendous limitations and challenges facing the area.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
Smith's Research & Gradings focuses on the people, sectors and news that matter the most to you. Smith's analysis is an indispensable part of Wall Street and the world's capital markets. Our approach was inspired by the need for a consistent analytical approach across all asset classes. Smith's Gradings are a time-tested, performance proven, and principles-based approach to risk. We go beyond the numbers to connect the dots for the world's decision makers. We can enhance the performance of investments in assets around the globe, while helping to ensure the safety of portfolios here at home.
Let a subscription to The Global Economic Doctor provide you with access to sovereign news, analysis and insights. Concise and powerful, the Global Economic Doctor spans the globe, giving you a read on how today’s market developments and key players are impacting your business around the planet.
